Jason Leo Carvalho 2019-05-28 Jason Leo Carvalho 2019-05-28

🛰️ How Founders Can Win in the $1 Trillion U.S. Defense Era

Strategic Recommendations for SpaceTech Startups from Carvalho Capital and HUMANUS.VC

A New Signal From Washington

The recent $1.01 trillion U.S. defense budget proposal is more than a financial headline—it’s a strategic signal. For the first time in decades, defense spending has crossed a trillion-dollar threshold, not in reaction to a single event, but as a structural redefinition of U.S. priorities. This scale of investment reframes space not as an experimental domain, but as critical infrastructure.

Markets have already responded. But this moment demands more than reaction. It requires reorientation.

From Fringe to Foundational: SpaceTech's Inflection Point

SpaceTech is no longer a speculative sector. It is now a domain of infrastructure, logistics, and resilience. This shift—from mission-specific science to sovereign systems—is not subtle. It is the next layer of global infrastructure.

Founders who were once perceived as futurists are now front-line builders of sovereign capability. Those who anticipated this shift early are now holding keys to global relevance.

Historical Context: From Sputnik to Starlink

Each inflection in U.S. defense spending has catalyzed new industrial epochs:

1957–1975: The Space Race created DARPA, GPS, and the foundations of commercial telecom. NASA's Apollo missions catalyzed national pride and launched the first wave of public-private partnerships.
1980s: Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative birthed key dual-use innovations. Defense-backed investments accelerated microelectronics, satellite comms, and early orbital surveillance systems.
2001–2015: Post-9/11 budgets led to the rise of cyber, ISR, and global intelligence fusion platforms. Palantir emerged here—not just as a startup, but as an architecture for state-grade data capability.

2025 is different. This is the first major defense super-cycle where the private sector—not government—is leading technical innovation. Founders aren’t just responding to policy; they’re shaping it.

Key Areas of Opportunity

In-Orbit Servicing & Logistics Founders building refueling, repositioning, and de-orbiting tech are no longer niche. They are solving problems once assumed to be government-only.
ISR & Mesh Networks Real-time Earth observation, constellation-driven data layers, and adaptive networks that serve defense and climate monitoring will define the next wave of space-based platforms.
Autonomous Space Robotics On-orbit inspection, repair, and in-space manufacturing are now strategic differentiators. These are not science projects—they’re sovereign capabilities.
Edge Compute in Orbit Latency and autonomy are no longer nice-to-haves. Expect growing demand for AI-driven space systems that can analyze, decide, and act in-orbit.

Case Studies: What Varda, Palantir, and Planet Labs Got Right

Planet Labs: Demonstrated that EO data isn’t just for defense. By serving NGOs, environmental monitors, and national security agencies, they created a commercial-first, mission-aligned model.
Palantir: Mastered procurement as a go-to-market strategy. They didn’t wait for markets to catch up. They embedded deeply into defense customers’ needs—and became irreplaceable.
Varda: Made in-space manufacturing real. By grounding their long-term vision in clear terrestrial markets, they made a speculative tech platform practical and fundable.

These companies succeeded not by chasing contracts—but by defining markets.

The Dual Mandate of SpaceTech: Sovereignty + Stewardship

At HUMANUS.VC, our thesis has long been shaped by a dual belief:

That space technology is essential to democratic resilience, in an increasingly fractured geopolitical landscape
And that it is equally transformative for Earth and society, through climate intelligence, automation, and access

The proposed $1 trillion U.S. defense budget reinforces a hard truth: SpaceTech is no longer fringe—it is foundational.

Why This Budget Matters to Builders

The U.S. Department of Defense is not simply preparing for kinetic conflict—it is building infrastructure at orbital scale. Founders operating in this space should anticipate accelerated momentum around:

In-orbit servicing & logistics – satellite longevity, refueling, and repair
Space-based ISR & mesh networks – real-time targeting, climate data, disaster response
Edge compute in orbit – autonomous decision-making at low latency
Space robotics – in-orbit manufacturing, inspection, and sovereign automation

NASA: Vision Without Velocity?

While defense budgets rise, NASA’s FY25 request (~$25.4B) remains effectively flat—and FY26 may fall in real terms. NASA’s long-range vision remains extraordinary (Artemis, Earth monitoring, science-led exploration), but resource constraints will force trade-offs.

That’s where founders—and agile capital—must step in.

A vacuum is forming between public ambition and public capacity. The next generation of space innovation may be delivered not by government alone—but by the startups willing to move with urgency, duality, and purpose.

What Founders in the Five Eyes Must Understand

If you are building in the U.S., Canada, UK, Australia, or New Zealand, this is a structural advantage:

Governments are actively seeking trusted platforms
Defense procurement is favoring domestic IP and clean supply chains
Dual-use alignment now unlocks scale, not scrutiny

Founders in these countries should act decisively:

Create procurement-ready compliance from day one
Understand export controls like ITAR, EAR, and CGP
Proactively engage with innovation cells in your national space and defense ecosystems

The Founder Field Guide: 10 Questions to Ask Now

Can your platform dual-serve civil and defense applications?
Does your cap table introduce foreign ownership complications?
Do you control your core IP and supply chain dependencies?
Have you engaged with defense innovation units or FVEY procurement bodies?
Can your product roadmap withstand dual review (military + regulatory)?
Is your climate thesis visible and fundable?
Are you exporting to or sourcing from adversarial states?
Do you have the legal architecture for ITAR, EAR, and CGP compliance?
Can you articulate a doctrine of use (how your tech helps democracy, not just deployment)?
Are you building a company—or a platform for sovereign advantage?

Every founder should use this list not as a filter, but as a foundation.

The Other Side of the Coin: NASA Budget Limits

NASA's ~$25.4B FY25 budget holds steady, but inflation-adjusted, this is a contraction. While missions like Artemis and Earth climate science remain inspiring, execution gaps are forming. That gap is a founder's opportunity.

Public ambition now depends on private execution. Venture-backed startups can fill this vacuum with velocity and clarity. NASA may set vision. But founders will deliver it.

What Smart Capital Will Look For in 2025–2026

FVEY-compliant supply chains and governance
Autonomous or edge capabilities deployable in orbit
Teams fluent in both dual-use and climate framing
Clear doctrine of use: defensive, democratic, and aligned with open societies
Narrative clarity: can this become a pillar of infrastructure, not just a product?

Investors will chase asymmetric returns—but only if risk is translated into relevance. Founders who speak both defense and mission-language will win.

Geopolitical Forecast: Venture as Soft Power

As multipolar competition intensifies, venture-backed innovation becomes a tool of soft power. Startups aligned with open societies, climate restoration, and sovereign resilience will find themselves not only funded, but protected.

Expect:

Strategic venture arms from allied nations
Cross-border procurement pathways between FVEY nations
Embedded founders within both civil and defense agency ecosystems

This is not a reversion to militarism. It’s a modern alignment of capital, capability, and consequence.

Conclusion: The Founder Sovereign Moment

This is no longer a question of whether SpaceTech matters. It is a question of who leads it.

Founders now sit at the intersection of geopolitics and planetary systems. The choices made in 2025–2027 will echo for decades.

Build clean. Build trusted. Build big.

This is the founder sovereign moment.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.