State of Space Report · 2026
Sovereignty is moving to orbit
Opportunities for venture capital in SpaceTech
Jason Carvalho
Managing Partner, HUMANUS.VC
October 2026 · Cosmos 2612
Commercial satellites are now in the line of fire
~500 m
closest approach of a Russian military satellite to ICEYE-X36, a commercial radar satellite
April
Russia launches six military satellites, Cosmos 2612 among them
May
Four of them close on an ICEYE satellite; ICEYE moves it
October
Cosmos 2612 closes from 320 km to about 500 m, then backs away. No damage reported.
Domain awareness, manoeuvre and resilience are no longer extras. They are what the next contracts buy.
Sources: LeoLabs; Reuters; The War Zone; via Al Jazeera, October 20, 2026
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Sovereignty is moving to orbit.
Navigation, timing, communication and warning all pass through space before they reach the ground. Whoever holds that capability holds the advantage.
HUMANUS.VC
The first cheque into allied space
Pre-seed
and seed, often the first institutional cheque
Five Eyes
Canada, US, UK, Australia, New Zealand
548
companies mapped in the HUMANUS Atlas™
35
capabilities, from Earth to the Moon
500+
SpaceTech companies seen every year
30
pre-fund first cheques since 2021
In orbit
Portal’s Starburst-1 launched October 20, 2026
100+ yrs
combined building and investing experience
3 shows
Specific Impulse, Why Space Matters, SpaceEconomy TV
2 cities
Toronto, Ontario and Seattle, Washington
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Why now · launch
A paradigm shift in space economics
Cost to low Earth orbit, $ per kg · log scale
Space Shuttle · 1981
$85,216
Falcon 1 · 2006
$9,930
Atlas V 551 · 2016
$5,685
Falcon Heavy · 2020
$951
Starship · target
~$200
99% cheaper to reach orbit than the Space Shuttle. When launch is abundant, value moves up the stack, into what operates in orbit.
Source: Seraphim Space, Global Space Finance Summit 2025; NASA. Starship figure is a target, not a price.
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Why now · orbit
A new digital infrastructure in the sky
~16,000
operational satellites in orbit today
100k+
satellites planned in the next decade
325
orbital launches in 2025, a record; 165 by SpaceX
10,000
launches a year: SpaceX’s five-year target
Sources: Orbital Radar, Nov 2026; Seraphim Space, GSFS 2025; BryceTech, 2025; FAA, May 2026
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Market evolution
Three eras of the space economy
Now · we invest here
Space 2.0
A space-to-Earth digital platform: data, communications and sensing sold to civil and defence buyers.
Next · where a buyer pays
Space 3.0
Space infrastructure: servicing, logistics, power and mobility for assets that stay in orbit.
Future · on the roadmap
Space 4.0
Space resources that sustain the planet: the twenty-year horizon of the same roadmap.
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Proof in conflict
The world already changed
Ukraine · since 2022
Commercial satellites gave commanders an advantage their adversary could not match
Real-time imagery and communications from commercial constellations. Every allied military rewrote its procurement after it.
Israel · April 2024
300+ missiles and drones, met by sensing from space
Space-based tracking and coordination supported one of the largest air-defence intercepts on record, with commercial satellite data in the loop.
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Allied demand · US dollars
The buyers are governments. The budgets are committed.
$900B+
ReArm Europe’s €800B defence mobilisation
5%
of GDP on defence for NATO members by 2035
$1T
US annual defence budget, with space central to the build-out
2,374
vendors qualified for Golden Dome’s $151B SHIELD contract
There are not enough early-stage investors who understand both the technology and how governments buy it.
Sources: European Commission, ReArm Europe; NATO Hague Summit, June 2025; Bloomberg Government, January 2026
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Space’s role in defence
Where allied demand is hottest
ISR and imaging
Satellite ISR, hyperspectral and radar imaging
Missile warning
Detection and tracking from orbit
Secure comms
Resilient links that survive jamming
PNT
Positioning, navigation and timing beyond GPS
Domain awareness
Knowing what is in orbit and what it is doing
In-space mobility
Spacecraft that manoeuvre on demand
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Dual-use technology
One satellite, two customers
The same capability serves a ministry of defence and a commercial market.
Dual-use companies sell commercially while slow defence procurement runs its course.
Agriculture
Finance
Energy
Natural resources
Logistics
Telecoms
Government
Datacentres
Insurance
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Capital · private investment
SpaceTech capital more than tripled in a year
$40.1B
invested in the twelve months to Q3 2026, up from $11.4B a year earlier
$20.8B
in Q3 2026 alone, a record, including Blue Origin’s $10B round
666
deals in the same twelve months: the money is growing much faster than the deal count
Backing SpaceTech at seed is not a bet that venture recovers. It is exposure to the one part of venture that is already growing.
Source: Seraphim SpaceTech Investment Tracker, Q3 2026 (published October 2026)
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Capital · the repricing
The SpaceX IPO repriced space
$75B
raised on June 12, 2026, the largest IPO in history
$1.77T
implied valuation at the $135 IPO price
$2.1T
day-one close, up 19% at $161
$4.3B
estimated passive inflows on Nasdaq-100 inclusion
Public markets repriced first. Private markets follow, and the earliest cheque compounds the repricing longest.
Sources: CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, June–July 2026; J.P. Morgan inflow estimate
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Capital · by stage
Seed stayed small. Everything above it got deeper.
2019
2025
Seed · ~9%
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D+
In 2025 seed was half of all deals and under a tenth of the dollars. The least crowded seat in the sector.
2026 so far: seed deal count flat, Series D+ rounds up from 20 to 43, as capital moves later still.
Share of dollars by stage, read from Seraphim’s GSFS 2025 chart. Seraphim Index, Q4 2025 and Q3 2026
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Capital · Canada
World-class companies, thin capital
C$5B
Canadian space industry revenue, about 25% below 2014
1.1%
Canada’s share of the global space market, 2022
Last
of 10 OECD Space Forum members in public space spending as a share of GDP
C$7.5B
a year that defence spending could put into the sector by 2035
The defence money is coming. The Canadian companies that win it are being formed now, and they need their first cheque at home.
Source: RBC Thought Leadership, A Higher Orbit, November 2025 (Canadian dollars)
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Canada · private space rounds by stage · C$
Seven years, about $425 million
$50M
$113M
$20M
$193M
$12M
$19M
$21M
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026 YTD
Pre-seed
Seed
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
Stage not disclosed
60%
went to two companies, Kepler and NorthStar
2
disclosed Series A rounds in seven years
< 1 week
of global SpaceTech investment, at the past year’s average
HUMANUS.VC tracking of disclosed private rounds, Canadian-HQ space companies; excludes public companies, debt-only deals, government funding
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Canada · by stage · 2020 to 2026
Canada has the same shape, with a hole at Series A
Rounds
Dollars
Pre-seed
1 · 1%
Seed
9 · 11%
Series A
2 · 6%
Series B
3 · 36%
Series C
2 · 40%
Series D
1 · 5%
Not disclosed
1 · 2%
Half of Canada’s rounds were seed or earlier, for 12% of the dollars. Then two Series A rounds in seven years. Companies get a first cheque, then stall.
Rounds · share of dollars. HUMANUS.VC tracking of 19 disclosed private rounds, Canadian-HQ space companies, Jan 2020 to Oct 2026
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From our State of Canadian Space 2025 report
Canada’s gap is in the middle
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Research · grants and labs
Prototype to validation · the funding gap
Scale-up
Technology readiness level (TRL)
Between prototype and validation, Canadian companies run short of capital. That is where value leaks out of the country, and where we aim our first cheques.
~1%
of the 500+ SpaceTech companies we see each year are Canadian
Source: HUMANUS.VC and Carvalho Capital, State of Canadian Space 2025
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Canada · who got funded in 2025 · C$
2025: big promises, small cheques
Private capital · ~$111M, three-quarters debt
EarthDaily · equipment debt
~$82M
Reaction Dynamics · Series A
$14M
Maritime Launch · from MDA
$10M
Connektica · seed
~$4.7M
Government awards · ~$25M
Lunar Utility Rover · CSA, three firms
$14.6M
Reaction Dynamics · Quebec grant
$10M
Promised in Budget 2025
C$182.6M for sovereign launch and C$105M for Launch the North. It reached companies in 2026.
Three disclosed equity rounds all year, about C$29M combined. The largest was C$14M.
Publicly announced, 2025. Sources: company releases; CSA; Government of Quebec; SpaceQ; Payload; BetaKit
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Canada · who got funded in 2026 · C$
Ottawa outspent investors fourteen to one
Private rounds · ~$180M disclosed
Dominion Dynamics · defence
$160M
Mission Control
$10.0M
Canada Rocket Company
$6.2M
Galaxia
$4.5M
Wyvern
Undisclosed
Government contracts and awards · $2.5B+
Telesat · Arctic milsatcom
$2.3B
Maritime Launch
$200M
NordSpace
$28.3M
Reaction Dynamics
$8.3M
Canada Rocket Company
$8.3M
Kepler
$4.7M
Canada’s biggest pure-play space round this year was C$10M. Blue Origin raised US$10B in one.
Publicly announced, Jan–Oct 2026. Sources: company releases; BDC; DND; SpaceQ; BetaKit; Payload; SpaceNews
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Canada · sovereign launch
Canada still cannot reach orbit on its own
27 of 27
Canadian satellites launched since September 2025 rode SpaceX from US pads
129
planned Canadian satellites to 2035 with no launch booked, about US$290M of contracts
Late 2028
SpaceX has stopped taking new Falcon 9 bookings beyond it
US$10B
launch market Canadian companies can compete for, 2027 to 2035
Where it stands
Defence targets a first sovereign launch in 2028, for a 200 kg payload. Spaceport Nova Scotia is leased. The launch act, Bill C-28, is still at second reading.
One Canadian rocket company needs up to US$660M to reach orbit. All three together have raised about C$200M.
Source: RBC Thought Leadership, Mission Critical, October 19, 2026 (citing Bloomberg, July 2026)
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Where the market is heading · US$
Every major forecast puts space past $1 trillion
$0.69T
~$1.0T
~$1.0T
$1.8T
$2.0T+
$2.7T
2025 actual · Space Foundation
Citi · 2040
Morgan Stanley · 2040
McKinsey and WEF · 2035
Deutsche Bank · 2040
Bank of America · 2045
Canada by 2035 · C$
$4.5B
if nothing changes, down from $5B today
$21B
if Canada doubles its share to 2%
$12B
of capital it would take to get there
Sources: Space Foundation, July 2026; Citi GPS; Morgan Stanley; McKinsey and WEF; Seraphim GSFS 2025; RBC, A Higher Orbit
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Where we invest
We know where the gap is
01 · Capability
We see the empty spaces first
The HUMANUS Atlas™ maps 548 companies across 35 capabilities, so we see which missions rely on a single supplier before the market does.
02 · Capital
We write the cheque others skip
Seed is half the deals and under a tenth of the dollars. In Canada the shortfall sits at TRL 4 to 7. That is where we enter.
03 · Knowledge
We judge it as engineers
Our investment committee includes the lead architect of the SpaceX Raptor engine, and 100+ years of building and investing in space.
30 pre-fund first cheques since 2021
In orbit: Portal’s Starburst-1, October 20, 2026
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2026 in summary
Sovereignty is moving to orbit
- The space economy hit a record US$686B in 2025, and every major forecast puts it past $1 trillion.
- SpaceTech investment reached US$40B in the year to Q3 2026, triple a year earlier, yet seed is still half the deals and under a tenth of the dollars.
- Defence is now the buyer, and commercial satellites are now being shadowed in orbit.
- Canada has raised about C$425M in private space rounds since 2020, with only two Series A. In 2026, Ottawa outspent investors 14 to 1.
- RBC: C$21B a year by 2035 if Canada doubles its share, C$4.5B if nothing changes. The difference is early capital.
humanus.vc
jason@humanus.vc
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